Table 2 Estimated path coefficients for models in Fig. 1 fitted to the merged MCS and MCSP samples where the outcome variables are mental well-being (SWEMWBS) and psychological distress (KESSLER); and the main independent variable chronic illness has two forms, psychological and physical; only parameters for Wave 2 are shown for brevity, other path coefficients are similar (see SI6 for full set of parameters). Fitted with Full Information Maximum Likelihood. **p < 0.01, +p < 0.1. See Table 1 for hypotheses and predicted coefficient sign

SWEMWBS /KESSLER on

b

se

b

se

b

se

b

se

b

se

b

se

 Can rely on so

0.066**

0.005

0.063**

0.005

− 0.041**

0.006

− 0.038**

0.006

 Social provision

0.258**

0.011

0.255**

0.011

− 0.153**

0.012

− 0.149**

0.012

 Loneliness

− 0.477**

0.008

− 0.460**

0.008

0.605**

0.009

0.594**

0.009

 MCS (vs. MCSP)

− 0.301**

0.011

− 0.131**

0.009

− 0.153**

0.009

0.613**

0.012

0.398**

0.010

0.417**

0.011

 Chronic illness (psychological)

− 0.599**

0.019

− 0.335**

0.017

− 0.314**

0.017

0.954**

0.020

0.666**

0.018

0.665**

0.018

 Chronic illness (physical)

− 0.098**

0.015

− 0.054**

0.010

− 0.043**

0.013

0.116**

0.016

0.070**

0.014

0.070**

0.013

 Had covid

− 0.015

0.016

0.037**

0.011

 Relative died since pandemic

− 0.036*

0.015

0.040**

0.011

 Vaccine acceptance

0.012

0.008

− 0.010

0.006

 Risk attitude

0.050**

0.003

− 0.030**

0.002

 Shield for covid risk

− 0.027

0.030

0.061**

0.021

Can rely on so on

 MCS (vs. MCSP)

− 0.050**

0.011

− 0.027*

0.012

− 0.048**

0.012

− 0.025*

0.012

 Chronic illness (psychological)

− 0.301**

0.024

− 0.278**

0.024

− 0.293**

0.023

− 0.279**

0.024

 Chronic illness (physical)

− 0.046**

0.013

− 0.040*

0.017

− 0.032+

0.016

− 0.023

0.017

 Had covid

− 0.003

0.024

− 0.003

0.014

 Relative died since pandemic

0.013

0.023

− 0.018

0.014

 Vaccine acceptance

0.106*

0.011

0.090**

0.007

 Risk attitude

0.024**

0.004

0.017**

0.002

 Shield for covid risk

− 0.085*

0.042

− 0.026*

0.011

Social provision on

 MCS (vs. MCSP)

− 0.002

0.006

0.009

0.007

0.000

0.007

0.010

0.007

 Chronic illness (psychological)

− 0.187**

0.012

-0.172**

0.012

− 0.191**

0.012

− 0.179**

0.012

 Chronic illness (physical)

− 0.037**

0.008

-0.032**

0.008

− 0.030**

0.008

− 0.027**

0.009

 Had covid

0.007

0.012

0.018*

0.008

 Relative died since pandemic

− 0.003

0.012

− 0.003

0.007

 Vaccine acceptance

0.059**

0.006

0.047**

0.004

 Risk attitude

0.014**

0.002

0.011**

0.001

 Shield for covid risk

− 0.060**

0.021

− 0.017**

0.006

Loneliness on

 MCS (vs. MCSP)

0.438**

0.016

0.358**

0.009

0.360**

0.009

0.361**

0.009

 Chronic illness (psychological)

0.356**

0.008

0.413**

0.015

0.441**

0.015

0.403**

0.016

 Chronic illness (physical)

0.077**

0.010

0.066**

0.011

0.099**

0.010

0.079**

0.010

 Had covid

− 0.004

0.016

− 0.009

0.010

 Relative died since pandemic

0.014

0.015

0.021*

0.009

 Vaccine acceptance

− 0.050**

0.007

− 0.040**

0.005

 Risk attitude

− 0.032**

0.002

− 0.028**

0.002

 Shield for covid risk

0.111**

0.027

0.067**

0.022