Table 1 Estimated path coefficients and fit measures for models in Fig. 1 where the outcome variable is mental well-being (SWEMWBS) and psychological distress (KESSLER). Only path coefficients for Wave 2 variables are shown for brevity, other path coefficients are similar (see SI4 and SI5 for the full set of parameters). Fitted with Full Information Maximum Likelihood. **p < 0.01. The hypothesis with the predicted sign is given in parentheses next to the predictor variable

Outcome: mental well-being

MCS Sample

MCS Parent Sample

M1

M2

M3

M4

SWEMWBS 2 on

 b

 se

 b

 se

 b

 se

 b

 se

 Chronic illness 2 (H1−)

− 0.345**

0.025

− 0.171**

0.022

− 0.212**

0.017

− 0.117**

0.014

 Can rely on so 2 (H8+)

0.039**

0.007

0.079**

0.007

 Social provision 2 (H7+)

0.461**

0.015

0.219**

0.014

 Loneliness 2 (H9−)

− 0.423**

0.011

− 0.502**

0.011

Can rely on so 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H4−)

− 0.146**

0.031

− 0.075**

0.020

Social provision 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H3−)

− 0.102**

0.014

− 0.051**

0.011

Loneliness 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H5+)

0.293**

0.021

0.147**

0.013

N

5552

5552

7479

7479

Chi2(df)

273.393(12)

987.854 (79)

81.726 (6)

420.358 (48)

CFI

0.961

0.959

0.990

0.985

RMSEA (90% CI)

0.062 (0.056-0.069)

0.043 (0.041-0.046)

0.041 (0.033-0.049)

0.032 (0.029-0.035)

Outcome: Psychological Distress

MCS Sample

MCS Parent Sample

M5

M6

M7

M8

KESSLER 2 on

 b

 se

 b

 se

 b

 se

 b

 se

 Chronic illness 2 (H2+)

0.532**

0.029

0.357**

0.026

0.289**

0.016

0.224**

0.015

 Can rely on so 2 (H8−)

− 0.003

0.009

− 0.045**

0.007

 Social provision 2 (H7−)

− 0.469**

0.018

− 0.082**

0.014

 Loneliness 2 (H9+)

0.555**

0.013

0.470**

0.011

Can rely on 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H4−)

− 0.139**

0.031

− 0.072**

0.019

Social provision 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H3−)

− 0.094**

0.014

− 0.051**

0.011

Loneliness 2 on

 Chronic illness 2 (H5+)

0.277**

0.021

0.143**

0.013

N

5552

5552

7496

7496

Chi2(df)

515.763 (12)

1586.850 (79)

166.285 (8)

1670.899 (59)

CFI

0.942

0.932

0.986

0.944

RMSEA

0.087 (0.081-0.092)

0.059 (0.056-0.062)

0.051 (0.045-0.058)

0.060 (0.058-0.063)