Table 2 Hazard ratios from survival analyses predicting rate of progression to age of first drink, first heavy drinking, remission, and relapse, and age of first alcohol dependence, remission, and relapse

Model 1: Clinical risk

N = 1158

N = 1141

N = 1288

N = 675

N = 1113

N = 506

N = n/a

 Psychiatric risk

  Nicotine dep

1.19**

1.30***

–

–

1.40**

–

–

  Externalizing

1.41***

1.14***

0.89**

1.28^†

1.31***

0.89^†

–

  Internalizing

–

1.06

1.16**

–

1.38***

–

–

 Family history

  Father

1.13^†

1.15^†

–

–

1.30**

–

–

  Mother

–

–

–

–

–

–

–

  Twin

1.28***

1.39***

–

1.54^†

2.22***

0.79^†

–

Model 2: individual predictors

N = 925

N = 931

N = 715

N = 517

N = 900

N = 334

N = 279

 Personality traits

  Extraversion

–

–

0.97***

–

–

–

0.95

  Openness

1.01

–

–

1.05^†

–

–

–

  Neuroticism

0.98**

–

–

–

1.02^†

–

–

  Agreeableness

0.97**

1.00

1.03**

0.95^†

0.99

1.03**

–

  Conscientiousness

–

–

1.02**

–

–

–

–

 Drinking motives

  Enhancement

1.02^†

1.05***

0.97**

–

1.04**

–

–

  Social

1.02

–

0.97**

1.10***

–

–

–

  Coping

–

–

0.97**

–

1.05***

0.95***

1.15***

  Conformity

–

–

1.05**

–

–

–

0.86**

 Alcohol expectancies

  Risk and aggression

1.08***

1.09***

–

1.12

1.14***

–

–

  Tension reduction

–

1.10**

0.99

–

–

–

–

  Sociability

1.05

–

–

–

–

–

–

  Sexuality

–

–

–

0.78^†

–

–

–

  Liquid courage

–

–

–

0.74**

–

–

–

  Cog and Beh impair

0.96

0.96

1.14***

–

–

1.00

–

  Self-perception

–

–

–

–

1.07

–

–