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Table 2 Hazard ratios from survival analyses predicting rate of progression to age of first drink, first heavy drinking, remission, and relapse, and age of first alcohol dependence, remission, and relapse

From: Transitions in alcohol use over time: a survival analysis

Model/variables To first drink Heavy drinking Alcohol dependence
To first HD To remission To relapse To first AD To remission To relapse
1738 event, 31 censored 1293 event, 442 censored 932 event, 363 censored 157 event, 775 censored 640 event, 1904 censored 524 event, 117 censored 68 event, 456 censored
Model 1: Clinical risk N = 1158 N = 1141 N = 1288 N = 675 N = 1113 N = 506 N = n/a
 Psychiatric risk
  Nicotine dep 1.19** 1.30*** 1.40**
  Externalizing 1.41*** 1.14*** 0.89** 1.28 1.31*** 0.89
  Internalizing 1.06 1.16** 1.38***
 Family history
  Father 1.13 1.15 1.30**
  Mother
  Twin 1.28*** 1.39*** 1.54 2.22*** 0.79
Model 2: individual predictors N = 925 N = 931 N = 715 N = 517 N = 900 N = 334 N = 279
 Personality traits
  Extraversion 0.97*** 0.95
  Openness 1.01 1.05
  Neuroticism 0.98** 1.02
  Agreeableness 0.97** 1.00 1.03** 0.95 0.99 1.03**
  Conscientiousness 1.02**
 Drinking motives
  Enhancement 1.02 1.05*** 0.97** 1.04**
  Social 1.02 0.97** 1.10***
  Coping 0.97** 1.05*** 0.95*** 1.15***
  Conformity 1.05** 0.86**
 Alcohol expectancies
  Risk and aggression 1.08*** 1.09*** 1.12 1.14***
  Tension reduction 1.10** 0.99
  Sociability 1.05
  Sexuality 0.78
  Liquid courage 0.74**
  Cog and Beh impair 0.96 0.96 1.14*** 1.00
  Self-perception 1.07
  1. p < .05; **p ≤ .01; ***p ≤ .001
  2. ns not significant. Variable was included in the model as it was a significant predictor in earlier models, but was not significant in the final model
  3. – Not included in the model as the variable was not a significant predictor of the outcome in a previous model where only the variables within the specific subdomain were included at the same time
  4. HD heavy drinking, AD alcohol dependence. Externalizing antisocial personality disorder and drug dependence. Internalizing Major depression, panic, post-traumatic stress, and generalized anxiety disorders. Cog and Beh Impair cognitive and behavioral impairment
  5. All models also included a control for the previous transition and demographic variables (age, income, and education level). Missing data for ages or other variables creates slight differences in numbers of cases counted towards events across models